Hurricane Irma back to Category 2, but its track makes a pronounced turn
Hurricane Irma became a Category 2 storm once more in the National Hurricane Center’s 5 a.m. update, but as its strength fluctuates, its track now shows a distinct northwestern turn. Irma is currently located about 1300 miles east of the Leeward Islands, and is moving west at 14 mph. It has maximum sustained winds of 110 mph with gusts up to 132 mph. While Irma has remained in a somewhat weakened state over the past day or so, it is expected to move into warmer waters and better wind conditions in about a day, and is expected to be a major hurricane again as it approaches the Lesser Antilles at the beginning of next week. It is expected to reach Category 4 status by next Wednesday, with forecast sustained winds of 132 mph and gusts over 160. The NHC track for Irma looks only five days out, but there are other, more speculative forecast models. No coastal watches or warnings have yet been issued for Irma. Watches and warnings are typically issued 36 hours before a tropical cyclone poses a threat to a coastal area. So, as alarming as some of the information coming in might be, people can take solace in the knowledge that they will have plenty of warning if Irma looks to threaten the U.S. coast. “It’s still 2,000 miles away, and anything over the Atlantic Ocean moving generally westward, by geographical definition, would be ‘aiming in the general direction of the United States,’” said NHC spokesman Dennis Feltgen. “It is far to early to tell what, if any, impacts will be felt on the continental U.S.” Feltgen also said that Irma is a useful reminder that we are in the peak of hurricane season, and that as such, people in hurricane prone areas should be prepared, just in case. “Check your supplies and make sure you have a hurricane plan,” said Feltgen. “The last thing you want is to be doing this on the fly if you happen to be in an area where hurricane watches or warnings go up. Not that we expect that to happen any time soon, but use this weekend, when stores are open and everyone has supplies, to take advantage of that.”
Hurricane Irma Saturday Evening Update
Hurricane Irma continues to churn through the central Atlantic Ocean. It’s currently about 2,000 miles to the southeast of Providence and many days from potentially impacting the United States. With that said, it is important for everyone to keep a very close eye on Irma’s westward progress over the next 7-10 days. On Saturday, Irma fluctuated between a Category 2 and 3 storm as it moved westward. At times, the eye became obscured, something called central dense overcast or CDO. This is a process where clouds obscure the eye due to the development of an eyewall. Fluctuations in intensity are possible in the coming days; however it will remain a powerful hurricane for the next week, at least. ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Irma is expected to continue westward, passing to the north of the Caribbean Islands during the next five days. Some strengthening is expected as it moves over warmer water; in fact, there are some indications that it could intensify into a strong Category 4 or 5 storm by Wednesday/Thursday. The GFS computer model (below) shows the storm north of Puerto Rico with winds greater than 140mph! The big question on everyone’s mind is…where does it go from there? It’s impossible to say with any certainty. However, we have many computer models and varying versions of those computer models to help give us some indication of where storms will move. Below is a compilation of those models. Notice how they all cluster to a point just northeast of the Bahamas, then they scatter to a path into the Gulf of Mexico to the North Atlantic. We should have a better idea on potential Important notes about Hurricane Irma: It is too early to determine where a POTENTIAL impact would occur in the United States. Any potential impact is 7-10 days away but…. NOW is the time to make sure that you have your hurricane plan in place. Here’s a link to learn more about creating a Disaster Supply Kit Watch further forecasts from WPRI onair and online. -Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo Know Before You Go: Latest 7-Day Forecast | Pinpoint Weather Blog | Live Pinpoint Doppler 12 Radar | Threat Tracker | Pinpoint Traffic | WPRI.com Flight Tracker | Closings & Delays | Download: Pinpoint Weather App | Download: Eyewitness News App | Sign Up: Weather Alerts Like this: Like Loading...
First Alert Update on Hurricane Irma, tracking cooler air in the long range
BIRMINGHAM, AL (WBRC) - FIRST ALERT UPDATE ON IRMA: Tonight we are keeping an eye on the Atlantic Hurricane Irma, now about a thousand miles east of the Leeward Islands. The hurricane could become a Category 4, with winds topping 130 mph by Monday. The hurricane is expected to track west and southwest towards the Caribbean through Tuesday and then we expect a gradual northwest turn towards the Bahamas. Long range forecast data is in better agreement that Irma will continue a northwest turn, which would mean an increasing threat for the East Coast next week. It’s still going to take a few days before Irma is forecasted to begin the northwest track, so we need to keep a close watch on the system, just in case we see trends further west. REST OF THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK: We will continue to enjoy pleasant and dry weather for this Labor Day weekend, with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. A cold front will bring our next chance of rain and storms late Tuesday and early Wednesday. This rain threat should end by late morning on Wednesday so I wouldn’t cancel any big plans at this point. This front is going to bring us our first real taste of fall air, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. So get ready for some cooler weather! Some areas could wake-up to temperatures in the low 50s on Thursday. It is going to be interesting to see how the late week setup unfolds based on Irma’s track. I’m expecting sunshine for our area through Friday. Join us after the game this evening for an update on Irma’s track and the long range. You can also track the tropics on our WBRC First Alert Weather App. Copyright 2017 WBRC. All rights reserved.
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